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汽车行业将因电动车崩盘?


更新日期:2021-01-21 21:47:38来源:网络点击:1712018
中国国花,中国国际商贸城,中国国际展览中心,梅州美食,梅州视窗,梅州论坛

chupin | huxiuqichezu

zuozhe | sunmingyuan

titu | dongfangic

“dang(riben)zhengkemenshuo‘rangwomenbaituosuoyoudeqiyouche’shi,tamenmingbai(neishishenmeyisi)ma?”

12yue17ri,ribenfengtianqicheshezhangfengtianzhangnanzainianzhongxinwenfabuhuishangzhijiezhichu,diandongqichedeyonghuzhemen,bingmeiyoukaolvdaofadianchanshengdepaifangyijiyuxiangdiandongqicheguoduxiangguandechengben。

tarenwei,ruguoribenxianzaisuoyouqichedoushidiandongqiche,neimedao2021nianxiatian,riben(chulejidiandongchechongdianwai)jiangmeiyoudianlikeyong。erruguoyaomanzurucipangdashuliangdediandongqichedeyongdianxuqiu,neimejiangxuyaotouzi14-37wanyiriyuan(135-358yimeiyuan)dejuezijinlaijianlijichusheshi。gengzhongyaodeshi,ribenmuqiandabufendianlidoushiyouranmeihuozhetianranqifadianerlai,suoyidiandongqicheyewuyiyuhuanjingbaohu·。

“womenshengchandediandongqicheyueduo,eryanghuatanpaifangjiuyueyanzhong。”

zhayikan,fengtianzhangnansihuyaokangqi“fandiandongche”zhenyingdedaqi,tongshiyuzhengceheshichangkangzheng。

buguoyouqudeshi,fengtianzhangnanhaibiaoshi,fengtianqicheyezhengzaichaoxinnengyuanqichefangxiangdalitouzi,zaidiandongqichedekaifafangmian,fengtianqichejiangzai2030nianzhiqiantouzi130yimeiyuan。zai10niannei,fengtianjiangmeinianshengchan450wanlianghunhedongliqichehe100wanliangchundiandongqiche。

汽车行业,没有诺基亚

fengtianzhangnandecaifangbeifangchulaihou,hexiaopengfaletiaopengyouquan,shuo:

bujinxiangqilexiamianyigegushi:

2014nian4yue25ri,weiruanxuanbuduinuojiyadeshougouzhengshiwancheng,dangnuojiyaxianrenceoyuemaaolilazaijizhezhaodaihuishanggongbutongyiweiruanshougoushi,zuihoutashuoleyijuhua,“womenbingmeiyouzuocuoshenme,danbuzhiweishenmewomenshule。”shuowan,liantongtazaineidejishimingnuojiyagaoguanqingbuzijindeluolei。

henxianran,hexiaopengzaianshifengtianshinuojiya。

hexiaopengzhuanfadegushitingganrende,danqishishigeloudongbaichudeyaoyan。

yuemaaolilazai 2006 niancongnuojiyalizhi,2012 nianjiuchedigaobienuojiyadongshihui。zaishenjiuyixia,2014 niandejiaoyi,yejinjinshinuojiyabashebeiyufuwubumenmaijileweiruan。

zheige 2014 nianchuxiandedujitang,dangnianjiubeipiyao,buzhidaoxiaopengzongshicongnaeryoufanchulaide。

huxiuzaijinnian 6 yueshihouxieguoyipiangaozi,jiao《nicainuojiya,niquanjiajiunuojiya》,limianjiutidaole:

nanuojiyajiushilaituiyanqichexingye,zhinengshuomingyijianshi:bujinduishoujixingyewanquanbushu,duiqichexingyedelejieyefuqian。

xiangnuojiyaneiyangduanduanjiniancongtiantangdaodiyu,zaiqichexingyefashengdekenengxingjihuweiling。shouxianshiyinweichanpindiedaizhouqigengzhang,jileichuzhibiandesuoxushijiangengzhang;qicishiyaoxiangxiangnuojiyaneiyangyibucuobubucuo,qishiyetingnandede。zaiqichexingye,yijiajutouzhixianzouxiangshuaibaidekenengshicunzaide,zhishishuozheitiaozhixiandexielvbuhuixiangshoujixingyezhongdeanlineimedouqiao。qichejutousuomianlindeshuailuofengxian,gengxiangshijinronggainianzhongde“huixiniu”:yankanzhemanmanhuaxiangshenyuan,quezenmezuoyebibukai。

cheyongyuanbuhuibeidangzuoshumazhongduanquxiaofei,bushitazhibuzhineng、dianbudiandong、lianbulianwang、zibuzidongjiashisuonenggaibiande,shiwomenhuoyibeizideshouruzongjinesuojuedingde(huxiushoufa,ruyouleitong,suannichaowo)。

genghekuang,qichexingyegenbenmeiyouchanshengchuleisiyunuojiyadexingye“longduanjutou”。

neiburujiubiesuiyileibi,zhenzhengkankanfengtianzhangnandehuashishenmeyisi:

电动汽车环保么?

yaonongqingchuzheigewenti,jiubixudexianmingbaiduiyuqichehuanbaoyufoudedingyiheyaoqiu。

环保的概念很大,但是对于汽车这种工业产品而言,衡量环保的核心标准即是碳排放。所谓碳排放,并非单指二氧化碳的排放,而是指“人类因为从事某种活动,直接活着间接产生的温室气体,这些问题气体的总重量就被称之为碳排放量”。只不过由于二氧化碳对于温室效应的贡献达60%,且温室气体中,二氧化碳在大气中的含量最高,所以对它的削减和控制成为了重点。

lirushuiqi(h2o)、fuliang、eryanghuatan(co2)、yanghuayadan(n2o)、jiawan(ch4)、chouyang(o3)、qingfutanhuawuliudengdepaifang,doushiwenshiqiti,jirudaotanpaifangliangzhong。

dangran,renmenduiranyouchewuranhuanjingdezuizhijieganshoujishiweiqipaifang,qizhonghanyoushangbaizhongbutongdeyouhaiwuzhi,lirugutixuanfuweili、yiyanghuatan、eryanghuatan、tanqinghuahewu、danyanghuahewu、qianjiliuyanghuahewudeng。youqishijinxienian“wumai”xianxiangdeyuanxiongpm2.5yuzheixiepaifangwudoutuobukaiguanxi。

eryouyudiandongqiche,youqishichundiandongqichemeiyouweiqipaifang,suoyihenduorenpubianrenweidiandongqichegengjiahuanbao。danshijiqingkuangbingfeiruci,wulunshiranyouchehaiyougezhongxinnengyuanche(chundiandong、hundong、qingnengyuandeng),qihuanbaoyufoubingfeizhiyuweiqipaifangxiangguan,yinweizheixiechecongzuishangyoudeyuanliaokaicaikaishidaozuizhongshengchanluodi,quanchengdoubansuizhetanpaifang。

genjumashengligong《insights-into-future-mobility》(2019nian)yanjiubaogaoxianshi,shengchanyiliangchundiandongchedetanpaifangyaobiranyouchegaodeduo。

baogaozhongyifengtiancamryhebentianclaritydechexingweilizuoduibi,tongguoxiangduijiejindechanyelianxingshiheshengchanguochenglaikongzhibianliang;congxiabiaozhongkeyimingxiankanzhong,dancongshengchanguochenglaikan,shengchanyiliangclaritychundiandetanpaifangwei13.6dun,ershengchanyiliangcamryranyouchedetanpaifangwei8dun。zheiqizhonggenbenyuanyinjishidianchishengchanguochengdetanpaifangfeichanggao,shenzhikeyizaichundiandongcheshengchantanpaifangzhongzhanbi70%zuoyou。(jutigenjudianchibaonengliangdaxiaojueding,lirushengchan30kwhdianchiyueshifang1-5duntanpaifang,er100kwhdianchizuyueshifang6-17.5duntanpaifang)

(icevranyouche,hevhundongche,phevchahunche,bevchundiandong,fcevqingranliaodianchiche;tu/《insights-into-future-mobility》)

tongshitubiaozhongbiaozhulemeiliangchede“nengyuanshiyongxiaolv”,jidanwei”ranliao“xiasuonengxingshidejuli,yijishengchandanwei“ranliao”suoshifangdetanpaifang,heshiyongdanweiranliaosuoshifangdetanpaifang。ruguoyimeiliangche18wanyingli(28.8wangongli)deshiyongshoumingweijizhun,neimesuiranduanqilaikan,youyuzhizaoguochengzhongxinnengyuanchetanpaifanggaodaozhixinnengyuancheduihuanjingwurangengyanzhong,danshiyidanzhangqishiyonglaikan,xinnengyuancheyouqishichundiandongchetanpaifangyuanxiaoyuranyouche。

(jiyuxingshishouming,meizhongchemeixingshi1yinglidetanpaifang;#yihundongchewei1zuoweijizhunduibi,ziseweishiyongranliaodetanpaifangzhanbi,lanseweishengchanranliaodetanpaifang,lvseweishengchancheliangdetanpaifang;tu/《insights-into-future-mobility》)

yeludaxuedeyanjiubaogaozhichu:“congqichezhizaodaoshiyongxunhuanjieshu,diandongqicheyaobiranyouchehuanbaohenduo。”

(genjuunion of concerned scientistsdediaoyan,dechuletongyangdejieguo;zaizhenggeshiyongshoumingzhong,tongchicundechundiandongchetanpaifangyaobiranyouchedi50%duo;tu/ft)

suiranzheigejieguoguangyishanglaijiangshijueduizhengquede,danshi“shixianbiranyouchehuanbaodeshijian”zaigegeguojiadiqushibutongde。

yinweishaoweixixinderenjiuhuizhuyidao,xinnengyuanchezhisuoyizaishiyongshoumingfanchouxia,tanpaifanghuibiranyouchedihenduo,qizhongyingxiangyinsuhexinshishengchan“ranliao”detanpaifang,yejiushidianli、qingqishengchansuoshifangdetanpaifang。erzheigeshuzhiduiyubutongguojia、diqushiwanquanbutongde,biruzaifazhanzhongguojia(huozheshengchandianlitanpaifangjiaogaodeguojia),qishengchandianlitanpaifangshenzhikeyidadaoqingjienengyuanweizhuguojiade4-5bei。

(diandongchezaibutongguojiadepingjuntanpaifang;hongsezhuyaoyimeitanweizhu,chengseweihuashinengyuanjiaoduo,huangsehunhe,qianlvhuashinengyuanjiaoshao,lvweiqingjienengyuan)

genjumeiguonengyuanbuziliaoxianshi,pingjunmeiliangranyouchemeinianyueshifang5.2duntanpaifang(meinianxingshi19200gongli,meitianyue50gongli)。jiasheshiyongjiaowei“qingjie”dedianlilaiyuan(lvsebufenpingjunzhi),neimeannianjunxingshi19000kmjisuan,meinianyuepaifang2duntanpaifang。genjugusuan,

suoyifengtianzhangnansuozhidejiushi,ruguoduanshiqi“qiangxing”quanbuhuanweidiandongche,neimeyidingshijianduannei,wuranhuiyuanbiranyoucheyaozhong;bingqieribenyimeitan、tianranqiweizhuyaofadianlaiyuan,yaodadaodiandongchebiranyouchehuanbao,xuyaohenzhangyiduanshijian。

danshifengtianzhangnanxianranhulvelejigewenti:

shouxian,jibianyiwuranzuiyanzhongdemeitanzuoweifadianzhuyaolaiyuan,xiandairelifadianchangdexiaolvyijingnengchaoguozuixianjindeneiranjixiaolv。yizhongguoyijingjianli10niandewaigaoqiaodisandianchanglaishuo,liangtai100wanqianwachaochaolinjiehuodianjizulaishuo,qizhuanhuanxiaolvyuewei44%,qieduiyurelifadianchangeryan,tanpaifangkeyitongguojizhonghuachulikongzhi,yuanbiqianqianwanzailushangshifangyouhaiqitideranyoucheyao“huanbao”deduo。(muqianzaiyanzhidechao700dulinjiejizu,zhuanhuanxiaolvkedadao52-55%)

qici,geguodouzaijiadakechixunengyuandefazhan,yifangmianyinweiyougeguoduiyunengyuanyilaidewenti(liruzhongguo),lingyifangmianzeshihuanbaowentiyoubalixiedingdengzhengceyueshu。suoyizhenggefadianjiegouhuiyuelaiyuehuanbao,genjumashengligong《insights-into-future-mobility》zhongyanjiujieguoxianshi,chulesuoyouleixingcheliangdetanpaifangdouzaibuduanxiajiang,ruguoyangeanzhaobalixiedingdeyaoqiu,chundiandongchedetanpaifangxiajiangqushizuiweixianzhu。

(butongdianwangjiegouxiabutongcheliangzaidanweixingshijulidetanpaifangqushi)

zuihou,neiranjidejishuyijingyudaolepingjing,qirexiaolvhennanzaidedaotigao,yaomexishengxingneng,yaomexishenghuanbao。suoyixianzaidapichexingweilemanzupaifangyaoqiu,buduanjiaru48vqinghundengshouduanjinyibuyouhuatanpaifang。danshixinnengyuanchedequdongdoushilaizidianji,qixiaolvtianshengjiugaohenduo,jiashangjinyibuyouhua,qizonghexiaolvnenggoubijin95%yishang,zheishidetianduhoudeyoushi,yeshihuanbaodebaozhang。

(butongranliaoshiyongxiaolvxiabutongchexingdetanpaifangqushi)

dangran,ruguoyishunjianjiangquanribenqichequanbuhuanweidiandongche,yuanbenjiyuyuanyounengyuande“xuqiu”quanbuzhuandaodianlifangmian,dequefadian、chongdianjichusheshibukenengmashangpipeihewanshan。suizhexinnengyuanchebuduanbeishichangsuojieshou,jijianhefadiansheshihuisuizhibuduanjianshehewanshan。

suoyijibianribendangjuzaijiyuzhuanxingkechixunengyuanfazhan,fengtianzhangnansuomiaoshudeqingkuangbenlaijiushibukenengxiangbianmofayiyangwancheng,ertazhisuoyizheimeshuo,qishishilingyouyuanyin。

丰田有些急了

wulunshifengtianyehao,haishibentianyehao,zhenggeribencheqi,duiyuchundiandongchedebujijishiyoumugongdude。zai2019nianribenchezhanshang,fengtianhaicengmianduizhongduomeitijizhexianchangtiwen:“quanmianzhuanzhuchundiandongche,heconghundongmanmanzhuanweichundian,dajiagengxiwangzounatiaolu?”

huoxushichuyu“zhiyecongming”,dabufenmeitihuidadoushidiertiaolu。

zhongsuozhouzhi,fengtianbingfeimeiyou“kanzhong”chundiandongche。2010nian,masikeqinziyaoqingfengtianzhangnanshijiaroadster,suihoudedaofengtiantouzide5000wanmeiyuan(huande2.4%tesilagufen)yijidijiadedaonuumigongchang(fulimengtegongchangqianshen);danshishuangfangsuihouhezuozhong,youyujishu、linianchanshengfenqi,fengtianyu2014nianpaoshoulesuoyoutesilagupiao。

cihou,fengtianzaidiandongjishulingyujinzhuimangan:2016 nian,fengtianzhangnanqinziguashuaichenglidiandongchebumen;2017 nian,lashangmazida、dianzhuangchengli ev.ca spirit diandongjishugongsi;2019 nian,fengtianyubiyadijianlihezuo,binghenkuaichenglihezigongsi。

(fengtianweilaidezhanlveguihua,yihundongcheweizhu,jilanse,lvsebufen)

duiyuchundiandongchedexiaojitaidu,yijirenweihundongchejiangzhudaohenzhangyiduanshijian,yetixianzailefengtianqianxienianhaojuziyanfadetngashengchanpingtaizhong。huxiuzai《fengtianzhangnanzhiyewang》yiwenzhongxiedao,jinguanfengtianxianzaituichulechundiandongchexing,danshisuocaiyongdetngapingtaibingfeishizhenzhengchundianpingtai“e-tnga”,ershilaiziyuranyoubangongyongdetngajiagouxiaga-cpingtai。

zheiyejiujianjiedaozhilech-r ev、yize eheleikesasi ux300ezheisankuanchundiandongchedebiaoxianbingbulixiang,jinyou400kmdenedcxuhangzai2020nianshibugoukande。eranzhaofengtian2019niangongbudejihuaxianshi,zhenzhengweichundiankaifadee-tngapingtai,jiangzai2022-2024niancaitourushichang。

zheiyulingyijiacheqijutoudazhongqingjituanzhilidemebpingtaixiangbi,fengtiane-tngazaishengchanpingtaishangwanle2-4nianshijian。buguozheibingbunengjiandanguijieyufengtiandiaodui,shijishangfengtianzaihundongshiqidejueduilingxian,yiweizhetamenyouzhezugoudechundiandongchedejishuchubei。zhishizaitamenyanzhong,xianjieduandediandongcheyanzhongshouxianyudianchidexingneng(xiangqingcankaobizhe《sheixiankailediandongchedezhexiubu》),daozhibuxinrenlidianchi。

suoyifengtiandalituijinqingranliaodianchi,yijigutaidianchilingyu,xiwangzaiyonghundongchebaozhengdianquhuajinchengzhongdeshichangtongshi,dalitourushangshulianggelingyu,jinershixiantuichuhuashidaidechexing。ranersuiranfengtianyijingtuichulemiraidedierdai,rengweinengjiejueqingranliaodianchidejishuchengshuhechanyelianwanshanwenti,zhiqingchuqingdechengbenheanquan、qingranliaodianchidechengbenyiranshijudadezuai。

erguanyugutaidianchi,suiranzaishiyanshizhongxingnengbiaoxianfeichangyouyue,anquanxinggao、nengliangmidufanbei,qiefengtianzhishaoyongyou 233 xianggutaidianchixiangguanzhuanli,jihushiqitazhuyaojingzhengduishoudesanbei。danshijuliguimoliangchanhedadaocheguijibiedezhuangzai,rengyoubushaojuli。

ranerxianshide“fengkuang”rangfengtianzaiyewufachenjingxialai,qujixuwenbutuijinyuanyoudezhanlve。

shouxianshiqianyizhenribenzhengfuriqianchuanchu,jiangxuanbucong2035nianqi,jinzhixiaoshouxinderanyouche,danrengyunxuhundongchexiaoshou。zhishifengtianzhangnanbudebuzhanchulaiyuzhengfuboyi,kuangqieouzhoushichanghemeiguoshichangduiyuxinnengyuandetaidugengjiajianjue,zuoweixiaoliangheshourupaimingdiyidecheqijutou,bukenengjiuci“qufu”yutanpaifangdeqiangya。qicishiyoutesilaxianqidechundian“kuangchao”xia,6000duoyideshizhihezijinyinsushidashidicijizhezheiwei“juren”。yizhiyuqianyizhenyumasikeduocigekonghanhua,huxiangbiaodaduibicide“buxie”。

yibianshizhengfudeyali,yibianshizibendeyali,shenzhilianxiaofeizheshichangdeshijifankuiyerangfengtianbudebuganjin“han”shangliangsangzi,yiwenzhujunxin。

dangrantongshifengtianyezaijiasusuoyoudejindu,fengtiandegutaidianchishijianbiaozhong,shizai 2025 nianzhiqianxiaoguimoliangchan,ruguobushijinnianxinguanyiqing,fengtianyuanbendasuanzai 2020 dongjingaoyunhuishang,toufangyanzhengxingzhidegutaidianchidaba。2017 nian,fengtianjihuadao 2030 nianshouchu 550 wanliangxinnengyuanqiche,qizhongyaobaohan 100 wanliangchundiandongche。

erzai 2019 nian,fengtianjiangzheigeshijiandiancong 2030 niantizaodaole 2025 nian。

结语

chengran,fengtianzhangnansuoweide“jigongjinli”tuijindiandonghuajincheng,huishideyuanbenderanyouchechanyelianfashengjudagaibian,kenengdaozhizhuduogongchangheyuangong“shichong”,danshixindechanyelianyouhuixingqi,bingbuhuirutasuoyan,diandongchejiangdaozhiqichechanyemianlinbengpandejumian。

fanershifengtianmuqianyudaodezhuduowenti,yiji“daxiangzhuanshen”denandu,zhishifengtianbuyoudexuyaojinkuaiyingduidangxia“jiongpo”dexianzhuang。buguohuashuohuilai,jinguanzaizibenshichangheguojiazhengfudequshixia,chundiandongchesihuyipiankuanghuan,danzheibeihouyeyijingtoulouchulezhuduowenti。

zhongguoshenzhiyezaiqianyizhenqiaodingle《2.0 banjienengyuxinnengyuanqichejishuluxiantu》,xinluxiantudezhongdian,yi“dianquhua”tidaile“diandonghua”,jiyushizhemuqianduiyuxinnengyuanchedebutiezhichi,jianghuixiangjienengqichehehundongcheqingxie。

“congzhongguomuqiandedaoluhuanjing、nengyuanxiaohaojiegou、chengbenkaoliangyijixiangguanchanyelianfazhandejiaodulaikan,neiranjirengcunzaizhechengbenyoushi,shiyounengyuanbuyinggaibeiguozaobingqi,dao 2035 nianjienengqicheyuxinnengyuanqichedebiliyinggaidazhigezhan 50%。”

“woguonengyuanbumendeguihua,dao 2035 nianmeitanrengzhanwoguofadianliangyibanyishang。”

——wangbing

fengtianzhangnansuoweidedanyouhekaolv,yezhengshijiyuci。bushishuopaobuduishentihao,jiucongyigehaimeishiying500mizhangpaodejieduan,yixiatiaorumalasongjingsai,zheiyangdejieguobudanduishentibuhao,haikenengzhijiecusi。

wulunshichuyuguojianengyuanzhanlvejiaodukaolv,haishihuanjingbaohujiaodukaolv,diandongcheyouzhewushuduodeyoudian;danzheibingbuyiweizhediandongchejiunengmashangshiyongyusuoyoudiquhesuoyouxiaofeizhe,dianchijishudezhiyue、jichupeitaosheshidewanshanchengdusuodailaideshidashidebufangbian,yijingrangzhongguohenduoxiaofeizheshenyoutihui,youqizaijinnianzheigehanlengdedongtian,xiangxinhenduorenhuizantongfengtianzhangnandeyousi。

zhidaoyouyitian,diandongchezhujianjiejuelejigehexindewenti,huozhetongguoqitafangshirangneixiebufangmianzhujianbuzhongyao,zhenggeqichequanmianjinrudiandongshidaishigebirandeguocheng。renmendoukewangbianhua,xiwangkandao“tianfandifu,tuifanzhixu”dejubian,dansuoyoudedianfu,doushiyibuyigejiaoyinzhujianwanchengde,erzhisuoyiyouxierenhuigandao“turan”,neizhishitamenmeiganshoudaozheibeihoude“anliuyongdong”。

xiangguan:

拜登刚上任就“碰钉子”,涉加拿大行政令引发特鲁多不满1月20日,美国新任总统拜登正式宣誓就职并签署了一系列行政令,其中包括撤销加拿大和美国之间的输油管道项目“拱心石XL”的许可。加拿大总理特鲁多随即对此表示失望。据CNN报道,特鲁多当地时间20日发表声明称:“虽然我们欢迎(拜登)总统对抗气候变化的努力,但我们感到失望。”特鲁多还表示,自己去年11月与拜登就该项目进行了交谈,加拿大驻美大使等加政府官员也向新一届美国政府的高级官员提出了该问题。据新华社此前报道,“拱心石XL”是美加在建输油管道项目,旨在从加拿大向美国输送石油,目前已经进行到第四期。该项目在美国遭遇涉及环境的起诉,建设缓慢,2020..

上海黄浦区昭通路居民区列为中风险地区21日下午,上海疫情防控新闻发布会通报,将黄浦区昭通路居民区(福州路以南区域)列为中风险地区,上海市其他区域风险等级不变。中风险地区相关人员原则上不离沪,确需离沪的须持7日内核酸检测阴性证明。

上海报告3例本土新冠肺炎确诊病例 详情公布  中新网1月21日电 据上海市政府新闻办公室官方微博消息,在今天下午举行的上海市疫情防控工作新闻发布会上,上海市卫健委通报,1月21日,本市报告3例本土新冠肺炎确诊病例。   病例1,李某某,男,56岁。1月20日下午15点左右,复旦大学附属肿瘤医院在对医院外包后勤保障人员开展新冠病毒核酸例行检测中,发现有一份10人混检的样本检测结果可疑。1月21日凌晨,病例1的样本经市疾控中心复核,核酸检测结果为阳性。   病例2,周某某,男,53岁,与病例1系住同一小区的邻居。上海交通大学医学院附属仁济医院1月20日下午在对医院相关人员开展新冠病毒核酸例行检测中..

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